Tournament · simulated 20,000×
UEFA Champions League
Low confidence — read as a wide-open field, not a prediction. These odds come from a Monte Carlo simulation on a model fit to very little tournament history, with neutral-venue knockout approximations and a random-bracket approximation. We show them for transparency; the spread is the point. Updated Sep 9.
Every team's odds
| # | Team | Win | Final | Last 32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSG | 22% | 32% | 100% |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 20% | 31% | 100% |
| 3 |  Bayern | 15% | 26% | 100% |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 8% | 16% | 100% |
| 5 |  Barça | 7% | 15% | 100% |
| 6 |  Atleti | 5% | 12% | 100% |
| 7 |  Inter | 3% | 8% | 100% |
| 8 |  Dortmund | 3% | 8% | 100% |
| 9 |  Man City | 3% | 8% | 100% |
| 10 |  PSV | 2% | 5% | 100% |
| 11 |  Milan | 1% | 4% | 100% |
| 12 |  Real Sociedad | 1% | 4% | 100% |
| 13 |  SL Benfica | 1% | 4% | 100% |
| 14 |  Lazio | 1% | 4% | 100% |
| 15 |  Porto | 1% | 3% | 100% |
| 16 |  Galatasaray | 1% | 3% | 100% |
| 17 |  RC Lens | 1% | 3% | 100% |
| 18 |  Feyenoord | 1% | 3% | 100% |
| 19 |  RB Leipzig | 1% | 3% | 100% |
| 20 |  Braga | 1% | 3% | 100% |
| 21 |  Shaktar | 1% | 2% | 100% |
| 22 |  Napoli | 0% | 2% | 100% |
| 23 |  København | 0% | 1% | 100% |
| 24 |  Young Boys | 0% | 1% | 100% |
| 25 |  Union Berlin | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 26 |  Man United | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 27 |  Newcastle | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 28 |  Sevilla FC | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 29 |  Celtic | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 30 |  Antwerp FC | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 31 |  RB Salzburg | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 32 |  Crvena Zvedza | 0% | 0% | 0% |