Tournament · simulated 20,000×

FIFA World Cup

Low confidence — read as a wide-open field, not a prediction. These odds come from a Monte Carlo simulation on a model fit to very little tournament history, with neutral-venue knockout approximations (the knockout bracket follows the real tournament structure). We show them for transparency; the spread is the point. Updated Jul 16.

Projected Round of 32

The actual bracket structure — group winners, runners-up and the best third-placed teams in their real slots. Each slot shows its most likely occupantand that team's title odds; the path is real, the names are projections that firm up as the groups finish.

Tie 1