Eredivisie
Go Ahead vs
Willem II
Full timePitchOdds called 2 of 4
Go Ahead 4–1 Willem II
✓Match result: we called Go Ahead win (64%)result: Go Ahead win
✓Over/Under 2.5: we called Over (54%)result: 5 goals
✗Both teams to score: we called No (50%)result: both scored · we gave it 50%
✗Top scoreline: we called 2–0 (12%)result: 4–1
Pre-match numbers, judged against the final score — misses included. Every scored call joins the public record.
64%Home win
22%Draw
13%Away win
We lean Go Ahead (64%) — draw 22%, Willem II 13%.
Expected goals (the model's scoring rates this fixture is built on) — Go Ahead 2.0 · Willem II 0.8
Over / Under 2.5
Over 54%Under 46%
Both teams to score
Yes 50%No 50%
Early season.Only a round or two of results exist — last season's form carries the numbers while transfers, promotions and tactical resets aren't fully priced yet. This is the model's widest-miss window; calibration tightens as new results feed the daily refit. As ever: statistics, not betting advice.
Model vs Market — see where our probabilities differ from the de-vigged market read. Go Pro →
Go Ahead 1–0 Willem IIMar 2025
Willem II 2–0 Go AheadAug 2024