Eredivisie
Excelsior vs
PSV
Full timePitchOdds called 4 of 4
Excelsior 1–2 PSV
✓Match result: we called PSV win (64%)result: PSV win
✓Over/Under 2.5: we called Over (75%)result: 3 goals
✓Both teams to score: we called Yes (69%)result: both scored
✓Top scoreline: we called 1–2 (9%)result: 1–2
Pre-match numbers, judged against the final score — misses included. Every scored call joins the public record.
18%Home win
19%Draw
64%Away win
We lean PSV (64%) — Excelsior 18%, draw 19%.
Expected goals (the model's scoring rates this fixture is built on) — Excelsior 1.3 · PSV 2.6
Over / Under 2.5
Over 75%Under 25%
Both teams to score
Yes 69%No 31%
Early season.Only a round or two of results exist — last season's form carries the numbers while transfers, promotions and tactical resets aren't fully priced yet. This is the model's widest-miss window; calibration tightens as new results feed the daily refit. As ever: statistics, not betting advice.
Model vs Market — see where our probabilities differ from the de-vigged market read. Go Pro →
PSV 5–1 ExcelsiorJan 2026
Excelsior 1–2 PSVSep 2025