Eredivisie
Ajax vs
Willem II
81%Home win
14%Draw
6%Away win
We lean Ajax (81%) — draw 14%, Willem II 6%.
Expected goals (the model's scoring rates this fixture is built on) — Ajax 2.7 · Willem II 0.6
Over / Under 2.5
Over 64%Under 36%
Both teams to score
Yes 44%No 56%
Early season.Only a round or two of results exist — last season's form carries the numbers while transfers, promotions and tactical resets aren't fully priced yet. This is the model's widest-miss window; calibration tightens as new results feed the daily refit. As ever: statistics, not betting advice.
Willem II 1–2 AjaxApr 2025
Ajax 1–0 Willem IIOct 2024