Serie A
Roma vs
Fiorentina
Full timePitchOdds called 1 of 4
Roma 4–0 Fiorentina
✓Match result: we called Roma win (55%)result: Roma win
✗Over/Under 2.5: we called Under (51%)result: 4 goals · we gave it 49%
✗Both teams to score: we called Yes (50%)result: they did not · we gave it 50%
✗Top scoreline: we called 1–0 (12%)result: 4–0
Pre-match numbers, judged against the final score — misses included. Every scored call joins the public record.
55%Home win
24%Draw
21%Away win
We lean Roma (55%) — draw 24%, Fiorentina 21%.
Expected goals (the model's scoring rates this fixture is built on) — Roma 1.7 · Fiorentina 0.9
Over / Under 2.5
Over 49%Under 51%
Both teams to score
Yes 50%No 50%
Reading these together: each call is the more likely side of its ownmarket — they aren't one combined prediction. A winner, both teams scoring andunder 2.5 can't all land at once (the smallest winning both-score line is 2–1 — three goals). For the single most likely outcomes, see the scorelines tab.
Early season.Only a round or two of results exist — last season's form carries the numbers while transfers, promotions and tactical resets aren't fully priced yet. This is the model's widest-miss window; calibration tightens as new results feed the daily refit. As ever: statistics, not betting advice.
Model vs Market — see where our probabilities differ from the de-vigged market read. Go Pro →
Roma 4–0 FiorentinaMay 2026
Fiorentina 1–2 RomaOct 2025
Roma 1–0 FiorentinaMay 2025
Fiorentina 5–1 RomaOct 2024