Premier League
Newcastle vs
Bournemouth
Full timePitchOdds called 2 of 4
Newcastle 2–2 Bournemouth
✗Match result: we called Newcastle win (42%)result: Draw · we gave it 25%
✓Over/Under 2.5: we called Over (63%)result: 4 goals
✓Both teams to score: we called Yes (65%)result: both scored
✗Top scoreline: we called 1–1 (11%)result: 2–2
Pre-match numbers, judged against the final score — misses included. Every scored call joins the public record.
42%Home win
25%Draw
33%Away win
Newcastle are narrow favourites (42%, under half) — draw 25%, Bournemouth 33%.
Expected goals (the model's scoring rates this fixture is built on) — Newcastle 1.7 · Bournemouth 1.5
Over / Under 2.5
Over 63%Under 37%
Both teams to score
Yes 65%No 35%
Early season.Only a round or two of results exist — last season's form carries the numbers while transfers, promotions and tactical resets aren't fully priced yet. This is the model's widest-miss window; calibration tightens as new results feed the daily refit. As ever: statistics, not betting advice.
Model vs Market — see where our probabilities differ from the de-vigged market read. Go Pro →
Newcastle 1–2 BournemouthApr 2026
Bournemouth 0–0 NewcastleSep 2025
Newcastle 1–4 BournemouthJan 2025
Bournemouth 1–1 NewcastleAug 2024