Championship

Derby County vs
Birmingham

41%Home win

29%Draw

30%Away win

Derby County are narrow favourites (41%, under half) — draw 29%, Birmingham 30%.

Expected goals (the model's scoring rates this fixture is built on) — Derby County 1.3 · Birmingham 1.1

Over / Under 2.5

Over 43%Under 57%

Both teams to score

Yes 49%No 51%

Model vs Market — see where our probabilities differ from the de-vigged market read. Go Pro →

Derby County 1–0 BirminghamMar 2026

Birmingham 1–1 Derby CountyDec 2025