Bundesliga
Dortmund vs
HSV
Full timePitchOdds called 2 of 4
Dortmund 2–0 HSV
✓Match result: we called Dortmund win (72%)result: Dortmund win
✗Over/Under 2.5: we called Over (69%)result: 2 goals · we gave it 31%
✗Both teams to score: we called Yes (58%)result: they did not · we gave it 42%
✓Top scoreline: we called 2–0 (10%)result: 2–0
Pre-match numbers, judged against the final score — misses included. Every scored call joins the public record.
72%Home win
17%Draw
11%Away win
We lean Dortmund (72%) — draw 17%, HSV 11%.
Expected goals (the model's scoring rates this fixture is built on) — Dortmund 2.6 · HSV 1.0
Over / Under 2.5
Over 69%Under 31%
Both teams to score
Yes 58%No 42%
Early season.Only a round or two of results exist — last season's form carries the numbers while transfers, promotions and tactical resets aren't fully priced yet. This is the model's widest-miss window; calibration tightens as new results feed the daily refit. As ever: statistics, not betting advice.
Model vs Market — see where our probabilities differ from the de-vigged market read. Go Pro →
Dortmund 3–2 HSVMar 2026
HSV 1–1 DortmundNov 2025