Hoffenheim vs
Stuttgart

Too close to call — Hoffenheim 38%, draw 23%, Stuttgart 40%. No side is clearly ahead, so we don't lean on a winner.

Expected goals (the model's scoring rates this fixture is built on) — Hoffenheim 1.9 · Stuttgart 1.9

Early season.Only a round or two of results exist — last season's form carries the numbers while transfers, promotions and tactical resets aren't fully priced yet. This is the model's widest-miss window; calibration tightens as new results feed the daily refit. As ever: statistics, not betting advice.

Model vs Market — see where our probabilities differ from the de-vigged market read. Go Pro →