We lean Dortmund (62%) — draw 25%, SC Paderborn 14%.
Expected goals (the model's scoring rates this fixture is built on) — Dortmund 1.7 · SC Paderborn 0.7
Early season.Only a round or two of results exist — last season's form carries the numbers while transfers, promotions and tactical resets aren't fully priced yet. This is the model's widest-miss window; calibration tightens as new results feed the daily refit. As ever: statistics, not betting advice.
No previous meetings on record in the data we hold.