Mainz vs
Frankfurt

Mainz are narrow favourites (49%, under half) — draw 23%, Frankfurt 28%.

Expected goals (the model's scoring rates this fixture is built on) — Mainz 2.0 · Frankfurt 1.5

Early season.Only a round or two of results exist — last season's form carries the numbers while transfers, promotions and tactical resets aren't fully priced yet. This is the model's widest-miss window; calibration tightens as new results feed the daily refit. As ever: statistics, not betting advice.

Model vs Market — see where our probabilities differ from the de-vigged market read. Go Pro →