We lean Real Madrid (69%) — Shaktar 16%, draw 15%.
Expected goals (the model's scoring rates this fixture is built on) — Shaktar 1.3 · Real Madrid 2.8
Low confidence.This is a tournament at a neutral venue with only a few matches per team — the model's least-certain regime. Treat these as rough, informational probabilities, not tips or betting advice.
No previous meetings on record in the data we hold.