UEFA Champions Leaguelow confidence
Dortmund vs
Villarreal
Full timePitchOdds called 2 of 4
Dortmund 3–2 Villarreal
✓Match result: we called Dortmund win (87%)result: Dortmund win
✓Over/Under 2.5: we called Over (74%)result: 5 goals
✗Both teams to score: we called No (56%)result: both scored · we gave it 44%
✗Top scoreline: we called 3–0 (12%)result: 3–2
Pre-match numbers, judged against the final score — misses included. Every scored call joins the public record.
87%Home win
9%Draw
4%Away win
We lean Dortmund (87%) — draw 9%, Villarreal 4%.
Expected goals (the model's scoring rates this fixture is built on) — Dortmund 3.3 · Villarreal 0.6
Over / Under 2.5
Over 74%Under 26%
Both teams to score
Yes 44%No 56%
Low confidence.This is a tournament at a neutral venue with only a few matches per team — the model's least-certain regime. Treat these as rough, informational probabilities, not tips or betting advice.
Model vs Market — see where our probabilities differ from the de-vigged market read. Go Pro →
Dortmund 4–0 VillarrealNov 2025