UEFA Champions Leaguelow confidence
Man City vs
Napoli
67%Home win
19%Draw
14%Away win
We lean Man City (67%) — draw 19%, Napoli 14%.
Expected goals (the model's scoring rates this fixture is built on) — Man City 2.0 · Napoli 0.8
Over / Under 2.5
Over 54%Under 46%
Both teams to score
Yes 47%No 53%
Low confidence.This is a tournament at a neutral venue with only a few matches per team — the model's least-certain regime. Treat these as rough, informational probabilities, not tips or betting advice.
Man City 2–0 NapoliSep 2025