We lean Sporting CP (52%) — Roma 26%, draw 22%.
Expected goals (the model's scoring rates this fixture is built on) — Roma 1.2 · Sporting CP 1.8
Low confidence.This is a tournament at a neutral venue with only a few matches per team — the model's least-certain regime. Treat these as rough, informational probabilities, not tips or betting advice.
No previous meetings on record in the data we hold.